Preliminary thoughts on humanoids in construction and the project economy.
Being a bull on construction robotics with Foundamental (Monumental, BitBuilders and others), I wrestle with where I land on humanoids on/off site:
Must we prioritize either humanoid generalists or outcome-specialized robots?
Quote: "I don't trust multi-purpose robots because I don't trust multi-purpose humans either"
So I am seeking my own answer on whether I believe there will be what I call KAIROTIC COLLAPSE.
Bull case (Pro-humanoids)
- Zero infrastructure modification - plug into existing human workflows
- Dynamic task versatility - switch between multiple construction tasks
- Scale economics as production ramps* Training through human mimicry
- Leverage existing tools and equipment
Bear case (Pro-specialized robots)
- Construction is hyper-specialized
- Specialized robots outperform (350-500 bricks/hour already today)
- Cost premium: humanoids $50-100k vs specialized robots $20-30k
- Complex terrain navigation challenges
- Durability concerns for humanoids in harsh construction environments
"Kairotic Collapse":
Will humanoids eventually adopt specialized robots themselves, thus reverting back to a simpler form axiomatically? And is adoption of existing tooling already the precursor to the Kairotic Collapse?
Some metrics I plan to track
- Task switching frequency benefits
- Volume threshold for cost parity
- Cross-task learning efficiency
- Mean time between failures in construction environments
Let me have your thoughts: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aecvc_humanoid-construction-robots-bull-vs-bear-activity-7343969339806543873-jh4T
I am longing to get smarter.